Thursday, June 30, 2011

summerfest 2010

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  • ssa
    07-13 10:59 PM
    I agree. It would be 100 times easier to re-file under EB2 and port your PD individually than to get USCIS/DOL to change their rules (howsoever they choose to interpret it). Just see what % of our previous campaigns were successful in the past in spite of all our efforts...

    On a related note, after reading this long thread I couldn't help but wish all other IV campaigns (admin fixes, fund raising, house bills) could arouse such passion and involvement from IV members. Now, I'm NOT saying any particular category (EB2 vs Eb3) volunteers more than the other - its just matter of individual initiative, period - but it seems somehow our collective psyche is at ease as long as we all are stuck in the rut as a whole. Efforts to get ALL of us out of this mess do not fire up this much passion..




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  • QuietFlowsTheDon
    04-15 06:42 PM
    if you are in DFW metroplex it is a good time to buy.
    prices are holding up in most suburbs. interest rates are pretty good right now.
    when you look at the inflation rates, interest rate could probably go up.
    so if you have been thinking about owning a home for some time, i would say this is the best time in the last couple of years.




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  • DallasBlue
    09-29 07:22 PM
    USINPAC and AJC should support us for talented future lobbyists. :-)

    Forget the Israel Lobby. The Hill's Next Big Player Is Made in India (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/28/AR2007092801350_2.html) By Mira Kamdar (miraukamdar@gmail.com) | Washington Post, September 30, 2007

    Mira Kamdar, a fellow at the World Policy Institute and the Asia Society, is the author of "Planet India: How the Fastest-Growing Democracy is Transforming America and the World."

    The fall's most controversial book is almost certainly "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy," in which political scientists John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt warn that Jewish Americans have built a behemoth that has bullied policymakers into putting Israel's interests in the Middle East ahead of America's. To Mearsheimer and Walt, AIPAC, the main pro-Israel lobbying group, is insidious. But to more and more Indian Americans, it's downright inspiring.

    With growing numbers, clout and self-confidence, the Indian American community is turning its admiration for the Israel lobby and its respect for high-achieving Jewish Americans into a powerful new force of its own. Following consciously in AIPAC's footsteps, the India lobby is getting results in Washington -- and having a profound impact on U.S. policy, with important consequences for the future of Asia and the world.

    "This is huge," enthused Ron Somers, the president of the U.S.-India Business Council, from a posh hotel lobby in Philadelphia. "It's the Berlin Wall coming down. It's Nixon in China."

    What has Somers so energized is a landmark nuclear cooperation deal between India and the United States, which would give India access to U.S. nuclear technology and deliver fuel supplies to India's civilian power plants in return for placing them under permanent international safeguards. Under the deal's terms, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty -- for decades the cornerstone of efforts to limit the spread of nuclear weapons -- will in effect be waived for India, just nine years after the Clinton administration slapped sanctions on New Delhi for its 1998 nuclear tests. But the Bush administration, eager to check the rise of China by tilting toward its massive neighbor, has sought to forge a new strategic alliance with India, cemented by the civil nuclear deal.

    On the U.S. side, the pact awaits nothing more than one final up-or-down vote in Congress. (In India, the situation is far more complicated; India's left-wing parties, sensitive to any whiff of imperialism, have accused Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of surrendering the country's sovereignty -- a broadside that may yet scuttle the deal.) On Capitol Hill, despite deep divisions over Iraq, immigration and the outsourcing of American jobs to India, Democrats and Republicans quickly fell into line on the nuclear deal, voting for it last December by overwhelming bipartisan majorities. Even lawmakers who had made nuclear nonproliferation a core issue over their long careers, such as Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), quickly came around to President Bush's point of view. Why?

    The answer is that the India lobby is now officially a powerful presence on the Hill. The nuclear pact brought together an Indian government that is savvier than ever about playing the Washington game, an Indian American community that is just coming into its own and powerful business interests that see India as perhaps the single biggest money-making opportunity of the 21st century.

    The nuclear deal has been pushed aggressively by well-funded groups representing industry in both countries. At the center of the lobbying effort has been Robert D. Blackwill, a former U.S. ambassador to India and deputy national security adviser who's now with a well-connected Republican lobbying firm, Barbour, Griffith & Rogers LLC. The firm's Web site touts Blackwill as a pillar of its "India Practice," along with a more recent hire, Philip D. Zelikow, a former top adviser to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who was also one of the architects of the Bush administration's tilt toward India. The Confederation of Indian Industry paid Blackwill to lobby various U.S. government entities, according to the Boston Globe. And India is also paying a major Beltway law firm, Venable LLP.

    The U.S.-India Business Council has lavished big money on lobbyists, too. With India slated to spend perhaps $60 billion over the next few years to boost its military capabilities, major U.S. corporations are hoping that the nuclear agreement will open the door to some extremely lucrative opportunities, including military contracts and deals to help build nuclear power plants. According to a recent MIT study, Lockheed Martin is pushing to land a $4 billion to $9 billion contract for more than 120 fighter planes that India plans to buy. "The bounty is enormous," gushed Somers, the business council's president.

    So enormous, in fact, that Bonner & Associates created an India lobbying group last year to make sure that U.S. companies reap a major chunk of it. Dubbed the Indian American Security Leadership Council, the group was underwritten by Ramesh Kapur, a former trustee of the Democratic National Committee, and Krishna Srinivasa, who has been backing GOP causes since his 1984 stint as co-chair of Asian Americans for Reagan-Bush. The council has, oddly, "recruited groups representing thousands of American veterans" to urge Congress to pass the nuclear deal.

    The India lobby is also eager to use Indian Americans to put a human face -- not to mention a voter's face and a campaign contributor's face -- on its agenda. "Industry would make its business case," Somers explained, "and Indian Americans would make the emotional case."

    There are now some 2.2 million Americans of Indian origin -- a number that's growing rapidly. First-generation immigrants keenly recall the humiliating days when India was dismissed as an overpopulated, socialist haven of poverty and disease. They are thrilled by the new respect India is getting. Meanwhile, a second, American-born generation of Indian Americans who feel comfortable with activism and publicity is just beginning to hit its political stride. As a group, Indian Americans have higher levels of education and income than the national average, making them a natural for political mobilization.

    One standout member of the first generation is Sanjay Puri, who founded the U.S. India Political Action Committee in 2002. (Its acronym, USINPAC, even sounds a bit like AIPAC.) He came to the United States in 1985 to get an MBA at George Washington University, staying on to found an information-technology company. A man of modest demeanor who wears a lapel pin that joins the Indian and American flags, Puri grew tired of watching successful Indian Americans pony up money just so they could get their picture taken with a politician. "I thought, 'What are we getting out of this?', " he explains.

    In just five years, USINPAC has become the most visible face of Indian American lobbying. Its Web site boasts photos of its leaders with President Bush, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and presidential candidates from Fred Thompson to Barack Obama. The group pointedly sports a New Hampshire branch. It can also take some credit for ending the Senate career of Virginia Republican George Allen, whose notorious taunt of "macaca" to a young Indian American outraged the community. Less publicly, USINPAC claims to have brought a lot of lawmakers around. "You haven't heard a lot from Dan Burton lately, right?" Puri asked, referring to a Republican congressman from Indiana who has long been perceived as an India basher.

    USINPAC is capable of pouncing; witness the incident last June when Obama's campaign issued a memo excoriating Hillary Rodham Clinton for her close ties to wealthy Indian Americans and her alleged support for outsourcing, listing the New York senator's affiliation as "D-Punjab." Puri personally protested in a widely circulated open letter, and Obama quickly issued an apology. "Did you see? That letter was addressed directly to Sanjay," Varun Mehta, a senior at Boston University and USINPAC volunteer, told me with evident admiration. "That's the kind of clout Sanjay has."

    Like many politically engaged Indian Americans, Puri has a deep regard for the Israel lobby -- particularly in a country where Jews make up just a small minority of the population. "A lot of Jewish people tell me maybe I was Jewish in my past life," he jokes. The respect runs both ways. The American Jewish Committee, for instance, recently sent letters to members of Congress supporting the U.S.-India nuclear deal.

    "We model ourselves on the Jewish people in the United States," explains Mital Gandhi of USINPAC's new offshoot, the U.S.-India Business Alliance. "We're not quite there yet. But we're getting there."




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  • sroyc
    08-06 10:41 AM
    I'm not a lawyer but I think it'll be hard to prove that A qualifies for EB2 given that he/she does not have a Masters or 5 years of experience in a related field.

    Regarding the EB1 spillover - yes, it's a valid question but the fuzziness of the law gives them enough room to interpret it either way.

    Okay lets take your example. A & B are graduates with a Bachelors degree (A is a Mechanical and B is Computer Science). A decides to pursue higher study in Mechanical field and B takes up a Software job. After a year they file for B' EB3 at his work, while A is still at school. A joins a software company (His Masters in Mechanical is worth nothing now). EB2 is filed for A just because he has a Masters, B is also eligible for EB2 by that time. Why can't B get a earlier PD? Atleast B got relevant industry experience. How come A is superior than B?

    Also why should EB2's get the spillover visas from EB1? Do they have a Ph.D? Why can't they allocate spillover visas from EB1 equally between EB2 and EB3?



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  • hiralal
    06-08 10:54 PM
    I think nowadays you can get great deals in suwanee area, but in alpharetta area (ATLANTA) which is couple of exits towards the city on 400 highway.. are still selling for 400K..I am talking about 3000 sq ft, houses.. I got a quote for 420K with basement 3070 sqft.. with decent upgrades...
    and these homes are closely built compared to the ones in suwanee area..

    The homes prices never came down in these areas!!
    prices in suwanee (and in alpharetta) has come down a lot ..ofcourse you need to look ..if you try to buy from a person in denial ..you will feel prices have not come down. but there are lot of bargains in these areas




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  • chanduv23
    05-17 07:13 AM
    Behave like a high skilled person. Do not use bad words just because someone is against your opinion. Again if you use everything is appilcable to you. That means you are losing track and you do not have valid argument. You do not have sense that this thread is not for discussion for gc. This thread is about the H1b issue and Durbin bill. This my last reply for you. I will ignore you hereafter if you behave like this. I wasted my time for replying you. So you also do not reply my arguments.

    Look at the bigger picture, my dear friend. The biggest thing in life that drives a man's opinion is not education or skill or awareness, it is purely perception. A good example is of the man who shot his wife as soon as she opened the door for him and all the while he was thinking that there is an intruder at home. This was his perception.
    A public system always has issues and loopholes and a business is created basic on public systems like h1b or GC etc.... thats how public systems are. You are no special. Take example of American Idol. No matter how good you are, you can be voted out. You are exactly in a public system. In a pubilc system everyone goes through something that is called reality check and this will happen to anyone. If rich people think their kids must never gop through this and protect them, at some stage they have to come in terms with reality.

    I am in full support of American friends who lost their jobs, and I think we must do everything we can to help them get a job. But when it comes to businesses, the logic is different. They will try to get the best deal. Everyone knows the system and its loopholes and will do best to get more competitive and get better.

    Open yourself up and come out of your narrow minded approach, you will see a different world.

    One thing I noticed in likes of you. You people are jelous of desi consulting companies because of their misuse of loopholes and making great money and driving ferraris. Well, if you have an option to do that, you must and if you can you must, so many American people mix hands with desi body shops on partnerships and involve in this business. While an abuse of visa may affect you, you must work hard to stop that abuse. Just to protect your self interest you are blaming them, is not right.



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  • unitednations
    08-02 11:54 PM
    AC21 tells that one can leave the job after 6 months of filing I485. But the green card is for future job and if anyone is not working for a company after receiving permanent job then green card can be considered as fraud.
    These 2 rules are contraditory in nature.
    Some of my friends quit the job after 6 months of I485 but after receiving GC they went back and worked for a few months.

    Generally USCIS does not have time and resource to track this. But I think they do randomly. One of my other friend resigned the job and he was doing business. He got interview and he postponed the interview to get a job and letter from his previous Company.

    If anyone is happy in their job can stay there till receiving gc. In case of layoffs there is no choice one need to invoke. Even if need to resign the Company it is better try to maintain good relationship. After 8 years GC is denied that will place in tough situation though it will happen for a few cases

    I refer back to my earlier posting where I said I just read the memos and the law and thought this stuff was pretty simple. USCIS quite often goes above and beyond (tax returns rfe's, pictures of company inside/outside).

    I'll give you some examples of what they have done of which I have intimate knowledge of:

    1) Questioned company on I-140 why they had more 140's pending/approved then the number of people on payroll. Asked for all 140 info., h1, L1 and even the people who got employment base greencard and asked company to justify where they are

    2) Department of state for visa stamping; if they don't trust client letter; they refer the case to department of state fraud unit in Kentucky. They will then contact signer of letter and HR of company to verify that person signed the letter

    3) Department of labor is on a real war path of checking companies compliance with h-1b based on referrals made by department of state. I can tell you that there is no way any company who is h-1b dependent can be 100% compliant with h-1b. Patni got fined $3.5 million for violations.

    4) Department of labor made a home visit to an HR person who was no longer working with the company to ask and verify her signatue on labor applications in a fast processing state when they weren't registered to do business there

    5) Department of labor verifying that people were paid the greencard wage upon greencard approval (this was in conjunction with h-1b investigation). I can tell you that some states have very high eb2 wages and people aren't even close to the labor number; companies do it anyways to keep you happy but do they run that number once you do get the greencard?

    6) h-1b rfe's from california service center. when quota finished in one day; there was some rumors from california service center that they would be treating h-1b transfers/quota cases very harshly in that companies were engaging in speculative employment. These days if you are involved in software and you file an h-1b transfer or even extension with california service center; you have a very good chance of getting a four page rfe. One of the things they have started to ask for is a table of people whom h-1b's have been filed for. Table has to list name, social security number, receipt number, date of birth, joining date, termination date, no show, future joining date. California service center then intertwines this information with company unemployment compensation reports. I have actually seen 3 recent denials where USCIS examined the unemployment compensation reports and looked at people who may have been paid a lower wage and pulled those people's h-1b files and denied the present case saying they can't trust the company to comply with the h-1b, lca.

    ----------------------------------------------------------

    These days; uscis/dol/dos really means business. I refer you to earlier posting of how evertime a company files a case; it gives uscis a chance to go through entire immigration history of a company. They have the resources and tools.




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  • matreen
    07-13 07:26 PM
    I think we should support this letter and push for it.

    I understand IV is doing a great job towards our issues and at the same time CIS putting their efforts to come up with some kind of solutions and they are making changes to resolve the backlog issue.

    CIS better understand that EB3 preference also backloged not only EB2 and required some attention. Why don't they inherit the left over visas for fiscal year to both catageries not only EB2 to balance movement. This is also a acceptable change if we fight in order to clear the backlog for both the catageries....EB3 can't be ignored 100%......we are also hoping and dreaming our future and can't live blindly by doing nothing....

    Definatley we need IV support on this to have justice with EB3.

    Thanks IV.



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  • Pagal
    03-23 05:39 PM
    Hello,

    I had similar calls two times from IO so far...first to ask for documents (which I sent last month) and second on past Saturday to ask if I could come to the office to give new fingerprints (as the old ones have expired).

    It is nice to see USCIS becoming more proactive...all the best!




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  • alterego
    07-13 10:03 AM
    Can I ask why the complaint in the letter about the change in interpretation of the law in favor of Eb2 I? Before jumping on me, read on.
    The overflow visas would not go to EB3 I, under either interpretation. They would now go to either oversubscribed EB2 countries namely India and China(horizontally) or as in the past 2 yrs they went to to EB3 ROW under the old interpretation(Vertically).
    Arguably the first one is better for EB3 India since atleast, if you are qualified and your employer agrees and your job description is suited to EB2, then you could move. You certainly could not move your country of chargability. If you were hoping for overflow from EB3ROW, it would still have to pass through the gate of EB2I.
    Perhaps the person drafting the letter can explain their rationale on including this in the letter.

    I agree with Pappu, the single most important thing that could help EB3I in the near term is a visa recapture legislation. That is where the most energy of EB3 and for that matter all of IV membership should be. Specifically the membership needs to get more robust in their actions especially personally meeting lawmakers and their staff. Meeting affected constituents from their districts seems to have the most influence on them.
    Additionally, I would not convey the sense that, you were "deciding" on whether to file Eb2 or EB3. That should solely be based on the job description and is more up to the employers discretion in the current law. The beneficiary should not have a role in that(as per what I understand). Additionally, noone was prevented from porting their PD or using Sub labors or moving into EB2 category should the new job description meet the criteria (always remember you being qualified for EB2 means didly squat to the USCIS, it is the job description and the employer's desire for it that the USCIS considers, only then do your qualifications even matter to them). I agree that all of these are irksome to those waiting patiently in line, but those are the rules unfortunately. To my mind, the labor sub. thing was the most egregious, discriminatory and widely abused(thank god it has been ended), unfortunately those in the queue over the last few years paid for it.



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  • Gravitation
    03-25 08:27 AM
    Ok, so everytime I see a rent vs buy discussion I see apartment living compared with living in a house. This may not apply to a lot of other places but here's how it goes in SF Bay Area:

    Rental
    Apartment: Decent sized 2 Bed/2 Bath --- $1600 pm
    House : Decent sized 3 bed/2.5 bath --- $2000 pm

    Mortgage:
    House : Decent sized 3 bed/2.5 bath --- $3500 pm

    So, is additional 1500 pm worth the money? Why not rent a house? What's the point of trying to get into a sliding market when even Greenspan can't say where the bottom is?

    I am in a decent sized apartment right now and if I have to upgrade its a rental house. Buying in a sliding real estate market doesn't make sense to me.

    Buying a house is a long term move. Not a short term. The payment for house will remain (pretty much) the same for 30 years! Rental prices will go up every year. And after 30 years of payments, the house will be all yours.

    You're also neglecting the tax savings. There'll be appx. $900 per month in tax saving (assuming 25% tax bracket).

    Unless you can think and plan 5~10 years ahead (at least), real estate is not for you.




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  • nk2006
    09-29 05:10 PM
    Whoever the president is - Obama or McCain - our/EB immigrants fate is more in the hands of congress.

    I was just watching the outcome of financial bailout bill - it failed in the house despite having the support of current president and two presidential candidates. This is about the much hyped out bailout plan - the outcome of this bill for sure affects pretty much every american - this bill failed in house despite all the major leaders urging house members to pass it. This shows all politics are local. The reason for failure of this bill is its not that popular with people - opinion polls on the original bailout plan showed majority of people didnt like it and wanted to some changes, while the current bailout bill is different from it - still many of house reps are wary to vote in favor of it. Especially the reps who are up for tough election this November. They are concerned about their election and dont give a damn to their leader. I think it would be same for EB issues - we need to continue to lobby with congressmen and if possible push our EB only aspects in some bill (live visa recapture) because once our issues are combined with general immigration issue we will get run over for sure either by anti-immigrants or people like Durbin.

    The next president might set his/her broad immigration policies but as always devil is in details and these details are set by congress. Also if you observe our opponent organizations and the way they concentrate more on congressional elections rather than presidential elections - it becomes apparent that from EB (and other) immigration laws point of view there may not be much change in impact whether Obama or McCain is president. From their broad immigration policies I am sure either Obama or McCain will sign of any bill that favor more GC numbers (or recaptured EB visas) for EB immigrants. Of course it can get complicated with amendments from likes of Durbin but based on the merit of our issue, I think more congressmen would be voting in favor of our measures. The key is getting our measures pushed into any relevant bills.



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  • aadimanav
    07-14 05:43 PM
    Please participate in this non-controversial (EB1 vs. 2 vs. 3 and Row vs. Non-Row Compatible) campaign.

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=20190

    Thanks,




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  • Macaca
    12-29 07:42 PM
    What India Inc. Was Up To in 2010 (http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/12/29/what-india-inc-was-up-to-in-2010/) By Tripti Lahiri | IndiaRealTime

    We looked back at almost a year of India Real Time blog posts on business and the economy and here, summed up in five points, are the highs, lows and key things to take away from all the court judgments, reports, numbers and other data that the Indian economy and India Inc. generated this year.

    The Ambani fraternal feud ended, sort of. A Supreme Court judgment in May said a gas price set by the government would prevail over one in an agreement between Mukesh Ambani and younger brother Anil Ambani, ending the long-running legal dispute between the two over at what price Mukesh should sell gas to his younger brother.

    Years on from their father�s death in 2002, and after an acrimonious split of the Ambani business empire in 2005, things seem to be easing between the two. This year the two brother scrapped a noncompete agreement. That move allows firms from each brother�s empire to work in areas that the other brother is already involved in.

    Car sales, viewed as an indicator of overall economic health, chugged along. Even though upgrades to meet new fuel emissions rules made cars more expensive and rate increases made loans more expensive, cars sold like crazy, according to sales figures released each month. Although small, compact cars continue to be India�s top preference, SUVs made a lot of headway in India this year, to the distress of India�s environment minister, Jairam Ramesh.

    Speaking of Jairam Ramesh, the environment minister has been very energetic, to industry�s distress. Mr. Ramesh was quick to act on a panel report that said the India-focused metals firm Vedanta had violated provisions of India�s forest rights law. He halted the company�s bauxite mining plans in Orissa. The Lavasa hill town project in Maharashtra also got a stop-work order from the environment ministry in the wake of complaints from a nonprofit.

    Mr. Ramesh is now debating whether or not to put the green hex on the already vexed Korean steelmaker Posco, which has been trying to bring plans to build a steel plant in Orissa to fruition for five years. What he does�a decision is expected early in the new year�on the steel plant will could help show industry whether Vedanta was a one-off or whether Mr. Ramesh means to continue as he has begun.

    RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao is watching inflation like a hawk. It�s true the central bank governor, who likes to crack a joke or two and quotes Chinese leaders from time to time, didn�t raise rates at the last monetary policy review two weeks ago. (He had said in November that the Reserve Bank of India wasn�t likely to do so for about three months.)

    However, inflation has been a key concern all year and the Indian bank has been fairly aggressive about tightening. With a goal of bringing the headline inflation rate, which was 7.48% in November, down by 2 percentage points by March, expect Mr. Subbaro to resume a tight hold of the reins.

    Indian women have a really hard time juggling family and work, and that�s probably not good for the economy. It�s pretty clear that Indian women aren�t shy about leading�a woman runs the ruling party and another woman heads India�s top private bank. More women are CEOs of top companies here than of Fortune 500 companies. But several reports and conferences over the year have said that India needs to do more to take advantage of educated women it has, particularly as firms in the formal sector complain of a shortage (as a country of a billion people, there�s no unskilled labor shortage though).

    Many of them agreed that Indian women face extremely high pressure on the family front, even compared to women in other emerging economies, and that it can be quite hard for them stick with positions and climb up the ladder as a result.


    India Raises Renewable Energy Target Fourfold (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203513204576048870791325278.html) By ERIC YEP | IndiaRealTime



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  • gapala
    06-05 10:05 PM
    Real estate cycles are lenghty ones.. not like stock markets which turn around in 4 to 5 years.. Real estate booms are seen once in every 15 to 18 years... This is because the sum of amount is huge and the stabilization time frame.

    Based on current outlook, the prices for houses will fall until end of 2010 and will stabilize in next 5 to rise again by 2015 to 2017. This is purely based on historic pattern.. Now god kows what these crazy folks like Bernankie (15 fold increase in currency base projected in Fed Reserve BS. :D) and Gessner' (foolish tax payer investment in GM though it looks like payback to unions) interfearance will do to this country...

    Some people jump guns and create demand for home to get $8000 credit... you can see now the builders are increasing prices for homes in the market... slowly.. but will not sustain into 2010.. it will fall for one important reason, supply is too much.. oh by the way.. 30% of home owners want to sell their homes in this market to avoid further fall... based on recent survey..




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  • fedex_uscis
    03-23 10:03 AM
    Buy home at 82,marry at 68.USCIS will never change, this Barack Obama will be stuck in name check.I am sure he will get stuck in FBI name check. AILA should apply GC for Barack and see where it goes?



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  • anjans
    07-14 03:38 PM
    Missed point: The job needs to need that progressive experience and should call out to say that your job needs BS+5yrs. if it did the lawyers should not file EB3




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  • abracadabra102
    01-03 02:48 PM
    Writer, Shuja Nawaz
    http://www.shujanawaz.com/index.php?mod=about


    Brinksmanship in South Asia: A Dangerous Scenario
    December 26, 2008 10:32 | PERMALINK (http://www.shujanawaz.com/blog/brinksmanship-in-south-asia-a-dangerous-scenario)
    Reports of military movement to the India-Pakistan border must raise alarums in Washington DC. The last thing that the incoming Obama administration wants is a firestorm in South Asia. There cannot be a limited war in the subcontinent, given the imbalance of forces between India and Pakistan. Any Indian attack across the border into Pakistan will likely be met with a full scale response from Pakistan. Yet, the rhetoric that seemed to have cooled down after the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attacks is rising again. It was exactly this kind of aggressive posturing and public statements that led to the 1971 conflict between these two neighbors. Pakistan has relied in the past on international intervention to prevent war. It worked, except in 1971 when the US and other powers let India invade East Pakistan and lead to the birth of Bangladesh. What makes the current situation especially dangerous is that both are now nuclear weapon states with anywhere up to150 nuclear bombs in their arsenal. If India and Pakistan go to war, the world will lose. Big time. By putting conventional military pressure on Pakistan, is India calling what it perceives to be Pakistan’s bluff under the belief that the United Sates will force nuclear restraint on Pakistan?
    The early evidence after the Mumbai terrorist attack pointed to the absence of the Pakistan government’s involvement in the attack. Indeed, the government of Pakistan seemed to bend over backwards to accommodate and understand Indian anger at the tragedy. But, in the weeks since then, as domestic political pressure mounted on the Indian government to do more, talk has turned to the use of surgical strikes or other means to teach Pakistan a lesson. It was in India’s own interest to strengthen the ability of the fledgling civilian government of Pakistan to move against the militancy within the country. But it seems to have opted for threats to attack Pakistan, threats that, if followed up by actions, may well derail the process of civilianization and democratization in that country. India must recognize the constraints under which Pakistan operates. It cannot fight on two fronts. And it lacks the geographic depth to take the risk of leaving its eastern borders undefended at a time when India has been practicing its emerging Cold Start strategy in the border opposite Kasur. Under this strategy, up to four Integrated Battle Groups could move rapidly across the border and occupy a strategic chunk of Pakistani territory up to the outskirts of Lahore in a “limited war”.
    For Pakistan, there is no concept of “limited war”. Any war with India is seen as a total war, for survival. It risks losing everything the moment India crosses its border, and will likely react by attacking India in force at a point of its own choosing under its own Offensive-Defensive strategy. (That is probably why it is moving some of its Strike Force infantry divisions back from the Afghan border to the Indian one.) As the battles escalate, Indian’s numerical and weapon superiority will become critical. If no external intervention takes place quickly, Pakistan will then be left with the “poison pill” defence of its nuclear weapons.
    The consequences of such action are unimaginable for both countries and the world...
    The NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) conducted an analysis of the consequences of nuclear war in South Asia a year before the last stand-off in 2002. Under two scenarios, one (with a Princeton University team) studied the results of five air bursts over each country’s major cities and the other (done by the NRDC alone) with 24 ground explosions. The results were horrifying to say the least: 2.8 million dead, 1.5 million seriously injured, and 3.4 million slightly injured in the first case. Under the second scenario involving an Indian nuclear attack on eight major Pakistani cities and Pakistan’s attack on seven major Indian cities:
    NRDC calculated that 22.1 million people in India and Pakistan would be exposed to lethal radiation doses of 600 rem or more in the first two days after the attack. Another 8 million people would receive a radiation dose of 100 to 600 rem, causing severe radiation sickness and potentially death, especially for the very young, old or infirm. NRDC calculates that as many as 30 million people would be threatened by the fallout from the attack, roughly divided between the two countries.
    Besides fallout, blast and fire would cause substantial destruction within roughly a mile-and-a-half of the bomb craters. NRDC estimates that 8.1 million people live within this radius of destruction.
    Studies by Richard Turco, Alan Robock, and Brian Toon in 2006 and 2008 on the climate change impact of a regional nuclear war between these two South Asian rivals, were based on the use of 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices of 15 kiloton each. The ensuing nuclear explosions would set 15 major cities in the subcontinent on fire and hurl five million tonnes of soot 80 kilometers into the air. This would deplete ozone levels in the atmosphere up to 40 per cent in the mid-latitudes that “could have huge effects on human health and on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems.” More important, the smoke and sot would cool the northern hemisphere by several degrees, disrupting the climate (shortening growing seasons, etc.) and creating massive agricultural failure for several years. The whole world would suffer the consequences.
    An Indo-Pakistan war will not cure the cancer of religious militancy that afflicts both countries today. Rather, India and Pakistan risk jeopardizing not only their own economic futures but also that of the world by talking themselves into a conflict. The world cannot afford to let that happen. The Indian and Pakistani governments can step back from the brink by withdrawing their forces from their common border and going back to quiet diplomacy to resolve their differences. The United States and other friends of both countries can act as honest brokers by publicly urging both to do just that before this simmering feud starts to boil over.
    This piece appeared in The Huffington Post, 26 December 2008 (http://www.shujanawaz.com//)

    This guy sounds as though some injustice was done to Pakistan during 1971 war and conveniently forgets about the atrocities committed by Pakistani soldiers in Bangladesh. Millions were killed, raped or maimed. Around 10 million bangladeshis fled to India. India fought a just war and gave independence to Bangladesh. India did not occupy any of Pakistani territories despite a resounding victory (Entire Pakistan army was rolled up in less than 2 weeks). 1971 war brought back democracy to Pakistan.

    Regarding war casualities, yes, wars cost lives. 60 million died during WW-II and most of these are from allies (85%). Russia alone lost around 30 million.

    In fact, India can pre-emptively strike Pakistan with nukes and take out Pakistan. A few nukes fired by Pakistan may slip through and kill some Indians but majority casualities will be from Pakistan.

    Here is some guesstimate of India-Pakistan nuclear arsenal (http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jsws/jsws020530_1_n.shtml)

    If India waits longer, Pakistan builds more nukes and threat to India only increases and may end up taking in more casualities later. And yes, Pakistan will attack if it is confident of destroying India with first strike. It is, after all, run by military junta which is hand in glove with all these terror groups.

    But none of this will happen. India is run by hizdas.




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  • rimzhim
    04-09 11:43 AM
    Very true indeed. I am sure you have gone through the full nine yards and understand. Also you will still be an asset no matter what. That is not the case with "consultants".
    Thx for saying that. My boss who is a professor in a research university at least thinks that way, and also believes that I am a leader (FYI riva2005). Frankly, if you are not displacing an American, and there is legal proof of that, there is no reason to worry. Also, mjrajatish: yes, it will be difficult to move in 2 weeks. Same holds for me too because they have to prove that Iam not displacing another American in the new workplace. I see nothing wrong in that.




    unitednations
    08-02 10:51 PM
    ouch. there is always uncertainty, all steps of this gc process :(

    thanks for the note. I only hope they 'go after' people if they suspect fraud or out of status or salary issues etc.

    We are just a widget/number to uscis adjudicator. All of these ability to pay denials were very scarce prior to 2004. However, in 2003 and 2004 a lot of the 245i labors got approved (gas stations, restaurants, etc.). USCIS started to see a lot of bogus companies filing for people. They decided to clarify in a memo how they were going to look at ability to pay. Now; ability to pay was used rarely, in those cases that didn't look genuine (if you go to AAO decisions you would have seen the type of companies that uscis usually went after). However, to combat the 245i labors they started to apply the memo to all companies. Just imagine that a company with $20 million revenue can get ability to pay denials; but a company with $15,000 in revenue can get approval.




    mariner5555
    04-17 07:31 PM
    I also thought that pitching in the home buying by GC folks would make a great argument in front of law makers. But there was a very sensible posting by our spokes person Mark B.

    He said, he would not put home buying by GC folks as a main selling point for our cause. May be he will say this point as a half joke-half serious manner while discussing our core selling point. The core selling point being that the US is loosing talent by not giving us GCs in a timely manner.
    I agree ..it cannot be used as the main point. but everywhere (even here) .money (or economic issues in this case) talks.
    also, when you use current issues to link to the immi cause then there is a better chance of selling it.
    for eg - during Y2K ..nobody complained when immigrants were flocking here.
    when dot com was at height - clinton was easily able to sign the H1 cap increase bill.
    the issue today is housing ..but I agree many legal immigrants have brought (though I guess 60 - 70 % have not) ..and if the numbers were twice or thrice and there was unity ..then it would have been different.
    if you see the prev link about foreclosures ...say in a sub division - the average house rate is 400K. one of them goes in FC ..bank lists it for 250K ..in the same sub div - if 3 genuine sellers want to sell and compete - then they have to bring down their prices to maybe 300K ..and hence all the house values in that Sub Division effectively comes down ..so even 1 house buyer matters. In the end this issue will mostly be solved by increased demand ..and sizeable amt of that demand will come from immigrants.

    and if you see and analyze this link - the market will be swamped by foreclosures.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/24187419
    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/greenbe...un/?mod=MWBlog



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