Friday, July 1, 2011

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  • unseenguy
    06-26 06:04 PM
    A lot of bickering going on in this thread is because many of us (including yours truely) find it very difficult to understand/calculate
    1. Time Value of money (Wiki Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_value_of_money)).
    2. Cash Flow (Wiki Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_flow))
    3. Risk, not the english term - but the quantifiable aspects of it (Wiki link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk))
    4. Leverage (Wiki Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance)))

    I have worked on many of these concepts for > 2 years at work (I am a techie - but have also worked as a BA and part time quant for some time). I still personally find it very difficult to intuitively understand many of those concepts.

    A proper conclusion of whether buying is better or renting is would involve each and every one of these concepts - and a lot of assumptions (what will be rate of inflation, how will the home prices behave etc). Since there would be so many assumptions - I doubt it will be at all possible to arrive at any definitive conclusion. Your best bet would probably be a monte carlo analysis and see which one is more probably the superior one.

    So surprise of surprises - there is no "right answer"!!

    That said - I personally follow the a modified model of "dynamic programming" that my college taught me in the 2nd year of bachelors. You CAN NOT estimate future variables with ANY accuracy. So optimize your present steps based on some cost function.

    Applying that to the present problem - you CAN NOT estimate how the home prices will behave in future or how will the rent be or how will the inflation (or - horror of horrors - deflation) behave. The only thing you can optimize is your cash flow TODAY and the Present Value of any investment you hold. Present value = market value of your equity (even if the price is 40% lower than when you bought). Your "cost function" (maybe we should rename it to "wealth function") that you are trying to optimize is your net worth.

    The result of the "dynamic programming" approach if probably not going to be the most optimal - but it will be the best that I know of. :-)

    Best of luck guys.

    Hi Puddon head :

    Thanks for putting this all together. I support mathematical approaches. Monte carlo analysis is a good approach and it will always present the most pessimistic scenario.

    For optimistic analysis you can use, 3 or 6 point analysis like, (P + O + 4*ML)/6. Although ML in this situation is a tricky part.

    I agree that you are going to end up with a range rather than any specific number. I also agree that it is crucial to get the Most likely range with acceptable standard deviation :)

    You can use six sigma approach also :) ;) (just kidding on this last one).




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  • jung.lee
    04-05 06:07 PM
    The analysis is interesting, but this much amount has already been written off considering 100% of option ARM, and alt-ARM will fail.

    I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.

    The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).

    On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.

    Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).

    Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.

    You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))

    Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).

    Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.

    So you stand to lose:

    1. Your down payment of $120k
    2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
    3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k

    Total potential loss: $250,000!!!

    This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.

    My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.




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  • SunnySurya
    08-05 11:21 AM
    You certainly made yourself very clear. You are the most logical person , I have ever come accross. :p
    Labor substition was never yours to begin with...

    EB porting..you are already in the queue...you change ur job..go through the rigours of GC ..ad ..wad and lose a pad of money...then "IF" you are lucky you can regain ur position in the queue.... and looking at the 140 backlogs..anyone attempting to port his PD will end up getting stuck in the muck..;-)

    let me explain with example my friend:

    there is a blond ahead of you in the line....and suddenly she gets a nature call..she goes does her thing and returns...and she wants to regain her rightful place...

    now u my friend have a million dollar question: will u let her get back in the line in front of you...I bet u will...;-)

    now replace that blond with a desi.. i am sure i know your answer..."tere baap ka line hai kya"...

    so EB porting is possible only if you go through the rigours of stage 1 and 2...labor substition was a different animal..

    i guess i made myself clear..;)




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  • maverick_joe
    08-06 03:08 PM
    haha haha..man, cant let this thread disappear!
    bump bump!



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  • Marphad
    12-17 02:37 PM
    Marphad,

    But none of their postings (jaspreetsinghgandhi & tabletpc) had your kind of religious-politics in it!

    I remember your religious quotes in "485 Approved" thread.

    Guys, Mumbai attack wounds are still unhealed and morons like Antulay is trying to divert the attention is what I am talking about.




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  • unitednations
    03-24 04:30 PM
    You would be even more surprised if you look at the LCA and the salary they pay. Its surprising how they can get away with it. But then they are cap exempt, so that says something.

    I think it is mainly for graduate students who are researchers or professors right?

    I know my brother went this route and the graduate students/post doctorate students don't get paid much. I thought that was changing though.



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  • gotgc?
    12-17 10:44 PM
    It is true that 99.99% of Muslims are not terrorists. But 99.99% of World's hardcore terrorists are Muslims.

    It is absolutely true...why is that all terrorists are muslims..something is wrong...




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  • texcan
    08-26 07:58 PM
    A few nice kavitas by Dr. Kumar Viswas.

    Enjoy.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufrHWVnPy8g (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufrHWVnPy8g http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5RffA9QTWY)



    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5RffA9QTWY (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufrHWVnPy8g http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5RffA9QTWY)



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  • satishku_2000
    05-16 05:39 PM
    Infact pro immigrants and Corporations are arguing that shortage of skills and they are not displacing US workers. If that is true why cannot they accept the conditions that they will not displace US workers. If you accept that you do not mind replacing some american workers also then all of your points are valid. Then you can lobby for unlimited H1b and Unlimited greencards. You will never get American people support for that. But we all are lobbying based on the shortage of skills. So we should be ready to reduce H1b when demand goes down or accept the conditions for non displacement of US workers. Right now demand is more so US will absorb even 200K H1bs. But you need to look what happened between 2000 to 2003. So many layoffs. Part of reason was economy but other part was due to H1b and outsourcing

    I will accept that 25 year old H1b from India can work 15 to 18 hours a day but same kind of productivity cannot get with 40 year old person with family of 2 kids whether Indian or american. Is it right to replace those person with 25 year old person. If that is the case then you will be replaced by youger H1b person in future.

    My view is clear. There should be H1b numbers based on demand and supply. If they cannot come with correct numbers then restriction of non displacement of US workers should be there.

    Why someone whose permanent labor certificate is approved should have to go thru the process of adertising when his or her H1 is up for renewal? Can you please explain me what is the intent of permanent labor certificate as opposed to LCA in H1?




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  • NKR
    04-14 04:21 PM
    Exactly. This argument of buying house for kids is no argument. You can argue on either side. The problem is when NKR made a statement that it is big deal to not buy a house because your kid will ask "can you give back my childhood?". As if a 7 year old will regret not owning a house. The child will also regret not owning a playstation3, eat chocalates all the time, play all time. We all know what we wanted when we were kids.

    Comparing buying playstation3 and chocolates with buying a house is nojoke. The argument of buying playstation3 and chocolates is no argument.



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  • CreatedToday
    01-06 04:21 PM
    :confused:You don't believe this, but you believed when mullahs said, it was Israel and Jews behind 9/11! LOL

    If its true, why media is not showing how Hamas is hiding behind schools and mosques? Its a big lie and this is what they say in order to justify the killing. Also what rockets you are talking about? Those 7000 rockets that killed 4 people? I agree Hamas must stop their mindless and useless rocket attack.




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  • kc_p21
    01-07 05:32 PM
    Refugee_New:

    I would suggest that you get a DONKEY and move to Saudi or Afghanistan and practice your religion. You don't deserve to live in any country other than YOUR Country. Live in stone age since you can't think anything else.

    If you would have taken initiative like this and spent time like this we all would have GC by now. You are preaching to wrong people here. We won't be brain washed by your BS.



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  • Jerrome
    08-07 04:57 PM
    Menu
    -----
    Waiter: I've stewed liver, boiled tongue and frog's leg.
    Customer: Don't tell me your problems. Give me the menu card.

    Gangster's son
    --------------
    Q: What did the gangster's son tell his dad when he failed his examination?
    A: Dad they questioned me for 3 hours but I never told them anything."

    Dinner
    -----
    Wife : Do you want dinner?
    Husband : Sure, what are my choices?
    Wife : Yes and No.

    Wife
    ----
    First guy (proudly) : "My wife's an angel!"
    Second guy: "You're lucky, mine's still alive."




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  • SunnySurya
    08-05 02:23 PM
    Agree let us focus on 5882. Thats our best bet.
    Solution to all this is HR 5882. Even if will not make date current for all it will clear major backlog so people will see some hope in next year

    Please call your lawmakers and educate them ... once we reach house floor we might not have time to call all lawmakers.



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  • nojoke
    04-15 04:02 PM
    Are people seriously arguing that a child will not be happier in a bigger home, everything else remaining constant? Seriously, is someone actually arguing this?

    And money can't buy happiness? Really? Are you saying everything else remaining constant if I gave you money it would make you sad? Seriously? Who is this person who would be sadder if I gave him money? I would like to meet him.

    You people need to stop reminiscing about your childhood days and how happy your childhood was even though you had no money. I have a feeling that your child doesn't really care. Sure, give your child lots of love, but for Christ's sake, if you can afford it, don't make him / her spend his / her childhood in a small cramped apartment just because you had to.

    You are confused. Money alone cannot buy happiness. People with less money are all not sad. There is a difference between what people are saying in this forum and what you are implying that they said.
    Your child will be happy in rented house too. There are advantages with renting. There are various factors other than space alone. This does not imply that your child will be sad in a bigger house. As I said you are getting too confused.




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  • riva2005
    04-12 01:14 PM
    Its important to understand the root cause for the retrogression. Illegals dont have categories and categories in the EB GCs are there for a reason. It makes a world of a difference for somebody who is EB2 or EB3 if the person was from say.. Bangladesh. If EB2 he is all set if EB3 he will be languishing here. I am EB2 and am in trouble because of CONSULTANTS and yes I have a problem with that.

    Yes, we are all in trouble because of consultants. Nice attitude.

    I can say that I am in trouble because of everyone else in the queue of 500,000 highly skilled H1 and L1 people waiting for GC. Everyone else other than me and my family is causing trouble for me.

    If all others in the queue were to vanish or die somehow,my PD would become current and I can file for 485.

    Isnt that the attitude of IEEE-USA. We are in trouble because of competition from Indian and Chinese professionals.

    They have a problem with Indian and Chinese engineers whether they come here, or dont come here. They have problem with H1B, they have a problem if they dont come here and merely work on jobs in India and China that are outsourced from here to there.

    Just like IEEE-USA has problem with existence of competition, you have problem with the existence of consultants because that sub-community within this community is also asking for Greencards. And your solution is to eliminate competition.

    Consultants can say the same thing...that we are in trouble because of these perm-fulltime jobs holders who stick to one job for 10 years and we have a problem with that.

    How can you justify, with reasonable objective arguments that perm-fulltime jobs holders should be ahead of the queue from consultants and they are more deserving candidates for Greencard than consultants? I am not a consultant myself but I'd like to hear your reasoning behind this. Dont tell me crap that consultants pad their resumes. Everyone does it. Whether its consultants or perm-fulltime jobs holders, and whether its H1B or citizens, EVERYONE who is desperate for a job would pad his/her resume. You would do it too if it meant getting yourself away from filing bankruptcy.



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  • aadimanav
    07-14 05:43 PM
    Please participate in this non-controversial (EB1 vs. 2 vs. 3 and Row vs. Non-Row Compatible) campaign.

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=20190

    Thanks,




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  • anand2007
    07-07 11:42 PM
    I wish you a good luck and hope that your issue will be solved. contact good lawyer soon.




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  • Arjun
    07-14 08:42 PM
    Still better abolish Eb1/ Eb2/ Eb3 when there is no EBx in H1 then why EBx in GC? come on guys stratification on EB is reality along with preference order set by CIS. What is stopping eb3 guys from moving to eb2?

    you know what it takes to do that. Just think, if you were in eb3 and had applied in 2001 and now suggested to start all over again. It is very easy to say go change your category.




    validIV
    06-26 10:32 AM
    I have only one sentence to say ..watch the movie "pacific heights" ..I was watching it now and that is a perfect movie for those who intend to rent their homes.

    LOL. Why dont you throw in Armageddon, Knowing and Deep Impact. Those are also valid points since thats what can happen to the earth tommorow or the day after.

    Investment carries risk. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. I have lost money on other investments before, but that is what makes u grow smarter. You fall and you get back up and you know better the next time round.

    If you spend the rest of your life renting, the risk is 100%�you end up with nothing. I will take my chances investing my money in buying a home because its certainly better than losing 100%.




    kaisersose
    04-14 12:00 PM
    No body can predict how much it is going down exactly. But you can predict it is going down considerably.
    My point is that the house price is out of whack with income. I don't see the logic in why it would not go down. The whole mess is started because people started looking at houses as investment. Buying now and seeing the housing value drop won't be fun.
    Whether you sell your house or not, it matters when you buy. You don't buy at the top of the bubble.

    It is not going down everywhere...I am in a location where people are buying houses like mad and the prices are actually better than last year.

    And yet, some people in my location are thinking about nothing but resale. They are not able to see a home as anything other than an investment and I am referring to such people in my earlier post.



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